Global gold demand reaches a record high value of over US$100 billion

Bhubaneswar : The World Gold Council’s Q3 2024 Gold Demand Trends report reveals that total gold demand^[1] increased 5% year-on-year to 1,313t, a record third quarter. Total demand exceeded US$100bn for the first time on record, supported by strong investment in a record-high price environment. Global investment demand more than doubled year-on-year to 364t, driven by a shift in demand for gold ETFs primarily from Western investors. Globally, gold ETFs added 95t, marking the first positive quarter since Q1’22. Bar and coin demand fell 9%, but the year-to-date total remains strong at 859t compared to the 10-year average of 774t.

Central bank buying slowed in Q3 though demand remained robust at 186t. Year-to-date central bank demand reached 694t, in line with the same period of 2022. Gold prices continued to rise to record highs during the quarter reaching an average of US$2,474/oz, hampering global demand for gold jewellery. Total jewellery consumption was down 12% year-on-year on a volume basis, but up 13% in value terms suggesting that consumers are comfortable spending more on lower quantities of gold products.

In addition, total demand for gold in technology grew 7% year-on-year, bolstered by growth from the electronics sector as the AI boom continues to support demand for gold. Total gold supply increased 5% year-on-year, with a jump of 6% in mine production and an 11% rise in recycling.[2] Louise Street, Senior Markets Analyst at the World Gold Council, commented:, “Q3 saw increased investment and over-the-counter activity prop up global gold demand and drive price performance. While the higher gold price dampened demand in the majority of consumer markets, the import duty cut in India kept jewellery and bar and coin demand remarkably high in a record-breaking price environment.

A ‘Fear of missing out factor’ amongst investors has been a key driver of increased demand this quarter. Investors have shown an appetite to buy into the price momentum, are encouraged by the prospect of future interest rate decreases, and are also considering gold’s role as a safe haven in the face of US political uncertainty and escalating conflicts in the Middle East. “Looking ahead, the step-change in gold investment flows is a trend that is likely to continue, which could keep both demand and price levels elevated. On the other hand, we’ve seen over 30 record price highs in 2024, and that environment will continue to be challenging for consumers. However, the prospect of economic growth is another factor we will be watching that could tip the scales.”

Sachin Jain, Regional CEO, India, World Gold Council said, “India’s gold demand in Q3 2024 witnessed an 18% year-on-year increasetouching 248.3 tonnes. Sharp cut in gold import duties in July sparked a revival in jewellery demand, which posted its strongest third quarter since 2015 with 10% increase to 171.6 tonnes as compared to 155.7 tonnes in Q3’ 23. Momentum in consumer demand picked up sharply in late July and remained strong until the mid-September. There was sharp 41% increase in investment demand to 76.7 tonnes in comparison to 54.5 tonnes in Q3’ 23. Bar and coin demand in India jumped to its highest third quarter since 2012. Investor optimism and bullish price expectations were accelerated by the July duty-led price correction, which allowed many investors to enter the market.

The duty cut negated much of the rise in gold prices during August, which encouraged some early purchases for weddings scheduled over the next couple of quarters, as well as drawing out pent-up demand from previous quarters. Good monsoons also acted as a tailwind for robust growth in lower tier cities and rural areas.

There was robust rise of 87% in gold imports in Q3 2024 to 360.2 tonnes, compared to 193 tonnes in Q3’ 23. Flows of smuggled gold into India all but disappeared thanks to the duty cut.Moreover, India’s and recycling increased by 22% to 23.4 tonnes compared to 19.2 tonnes in the corresponding period last year.Another consequence of the duty cut was selling by gold loan companies, which auctioned some holdings following the rupee-denominated fall in gold in order to limit losses from the non-performing loans.

India’s gold demand remains solid in the fourth quarter due to Dhanteras and wedding demand, although with the continued rise in the gold price offsetting the impact of the duty cut, we may see an increased trend for investors to wait for price corrections as opportunities to add to their holdings. Nevertheless, India is on course for a very strong year, as y-t-d investment is already approaching the annual totals of the past four years.We expect full year gold demand to be in the range of 700-750 tonnes.”

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